Home > Financial > Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 7 Aug 2017

Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 7 Aug 2017

Added: (Tue Aug 08 2017)

Pressbox (Press Release) - Gold prices edged higher in Asia on Tuesday with a weaker dollar bringing on physical buying interest in India and China, the world's top two importers, ahead of China trade data later in the day. Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.11% to $1,266.03 a troy ounce. China is expected to report exports rose 10.9% in July year-on-year, down from an 11.3% gain in June, while imports rose 16.6%, compared to a 17.2% increase in the previous month for a trade balance surplus of $46.08 billion, wider than the $ 42.77 billion in June. Overnight, gold prices traded slightly above breakeven on Monday, bouncing off session lows after the dollar came under pressure following comments from a top Federal Reserve official. Gold continued to pare losses, following a slump on Friday on the back of strong nonfarm payrolls data suggesting the U.S. economy could sustain further rate hikes while St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said that low interest rates are “likely to remain appropriate” over the near term. "The current level of the policy rate is likely to remain appropriate over the near term," Bullard said in slides prepared ahead of a speech to the America's Cotton Marketing Cooperatives 2017 Conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Inflation data later in the week, however, are expected to provide the yellow metal with fresh direction, as market participants are keen to establish whether the slowdown in inflation has continued unabated. The slowdown in inflation, has weighed on the prospect of rate hikes later this year, pressuring both the dollar and bond yields while helping the yellow metal trade close to seven-week highs. The producer price index and the consumer price index data are slated for Thursday and Friday respectively. A slump in trading volumes due to the holidays, however, is expected to keep gold prices range bound.

Gold prices drifted lower on Monday, as market players looked ahead to a busy week of economic data, including monthly inflation indicators, for further clues on the timing of the next Federal Reserve rate hike. Besides the inflation data, this week's calendar also features reports on JOLTS job openings, nonfarm productivity and unit labor costs, producer prices as well as weekly jobless claims. Investors will also keep an eye out on a number of Fed speakers for any new insight on when and how the central bank plans to pare back its massive balance sheet, with most of the focus falling on comments from New York Fed President William Dudley. Markets remain skeptical the Fed will raise rates in December, according to Investing.com’s Fed Rate Monitor Tool, due to worries over the subdued inflation outlook, but it is widely expected to start the process of reducing its balance sheet by September. Focus this week will also be on headlines coming out of Washington, even as Congress slows down for August recess. The investigation into U.S. President Donald Trump campaign's ties to Russia will remain on the agenda. Comex gold futures for August were at $1,262.96 a troy ounce by 2:45AM ET, down $1.60, or about 0.1%. It touched its lowest since July 26 at $1,259.80 on Friday, as the dollar jumped after a key report on payrolls in July showed U.S. employers hired more workers than expected.

Gold prices fell in early Asia on Monday with attention on the dollar after gains last week on renewed views the Fed may hike for a third time this year. Gold for August delivery fell 0.16% to $ 1,262.52 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Ahead in the week, Friday’s U.S. inflation figures are seen as key as are comments by Fed speakers on interest rate and balance sheet unwinding views. Last week, gold prices fell on Friday as a solid U.S. employment report for July revived expectations for another interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve this year. In Asia, The AIG Construction index rose to 60.5 in July from 56.0 in June, a major boost. Japan reported its foreign reserves data for July with figures standing at $ 1.260 trillion from $ 1.260 trillion in June. The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 209,000 jobs last month, beating expectations for a gain of 183,000 and the unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%. The report also showed that average hourly earnings increased by 9 cents or 0.3% last month to $ 26.36 an hour, the largest monthly increase since October. Wages increased by 2.5% on a year-over-year basis, matching June’s increase. The uptick in wage growth indicated that inflationary pressures are firming. Markets believe stronger inflation will enable the Fed to stick to its plans for a third interest rate hike this year. Expectations of a faster pace of rate increases tend to weigh on gold, which is denominated in dollars and struggles to compete with yield-bearing assets when borrowing costs rise. Gold prices are up around 9% this year, lifted in part by expectations that the Fed will take a gradual path toward tightening monetary policy.

Gold discounts in India widened to their highest in over 10 months and premiums in other major Asian centres edged lower on the back of sluggish demand across markets due to rallying global prices. In India, dealers were offering bullion imported from South Korea without paying custom duty at lower prices prompting higher than usual imports from the country. "Due to the free trade agreement signed with South Korea, importers don't need to pay import duty for gold imported from that country. That's why importers could offer huge discount. Dealers in India were offering a discount of up to $11 an ounce this week over official domestic prices, the highest since Sept. 24, 2016. Last week they were offering a discount of $4. The domestic price includes a 10 percent import tax. "Retail demand is subdued. It will remain weak in the first half of August unless prices correct sharply," said a Mumbai-based dealer with a private bank. India's gold imports will likely drop in the second-half of the year from the first six months after jewellers rushed to stock up ahead of new taxes introduced on July 1, the World Gold Council said on Thursday. demand is expected to remain subdued in India for a few weeks as "consumers who have recently purchased are unlikely to do so again in the short term.

Gold prices held steady on Friday, as investors awaited the release of highly-anticipated U.S. employment data due later in the day, although recent data and ongoing political tensions in the U.S. continued to weigh on the greenback. On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for August delivery were down steady at $1,268.66, very close to Tuesday’s seven-week highs of $1.273,30. The August contract ended Thursday’s session 0.13% higher at $1,266.40 an ounce. Futures were likely to find support at $1,256.60, Thursday’s low and resistance at $1,273.30, Tuesday’s high. The dollar remained under pressure after the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday said its index of non-manufacturing activity fell to 53.9 from 57.4 in June. Economists had forecast a reading of 57.0. A separate report showed that U.S. initial jobless claims decreased by 5,000 to 240,000 last week, compared to expectations for a 3,000 fall to 242,000. Investors were now looking ahead to the nonfarm payrolls report for July, due later Friday, to gauge whether the U.S. economy is strong enough for the Fed to stick to its planned tightening path. The greenback has been under pressure recently amid worries over political turmoil in Washington and recent lackluster economic reports, which have raised doubts over whether the Federal Reserve will raise rates again this year.

Gold dipped in Asia on Friday with nonfarm payrolls ahead expected to set dollar direction seen as crucial for overseas buyers from major importers such as India and China. Gold futures for August delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 0.39%, to $1,266.89 a troy ounce. Overnight, Gold prices traded slightly below break even but remained close to seven-week highs on Thursday as investors awaited nonfarm payrolls data for clues about the strength of the economy amid a dip in expectations the Federal Reserve will keep to its plan to raise rates once more this year. Gold struggled to for direction in early morning U.S. trade, as investors remained cautious of initiating large positions in the yellow-metal ahead of nonfarm payroll data on Friday, expected to provide further clues on the outlook for interest rate increases. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion. Gold has edged higher in recent weeks, as investor uncertainty concerning the pace of U.S. interest rate increases continued amid a raft of mixed economic data fuelling expectations that the Federal Reserve could backtrack on its plan to raise rates later this year. The U.S. labor market continued to show signs of tightening, after initial claims for state unemployment benefits decreased 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 240,000 for the week ended July 29, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Gold steadied on Thursday, hovering below Tuesday's seven-week high, as investors awaited U.S. jobs data for further clues on the outlook for interest rates. Gold rallied through most of July as the dollar fell on reduced expectations for a third U.S. rate increase this year. Inflation has been contained even though the labor market appears to be in its best shape in many years and despite double-digit U.S. earnings growth in the second quarter. Reduced rate rise expectations tend to weaken the dollar, making dollar-priced gold cheaper for non-U.S. investors. The dollar fell against the yen, euro and Swiss franc, after weaker-than-expected U.S. services sector data worried investors and stoked doubts that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates again in 2017. gold XAU= was 0.15 percent higher at $ 1,268.15 an ounce by 2:02 p.m. EDT, not far from Tuesday's seven-week high of $1,273.97. In early Asian trade, it fell $ 6.20 within one minute to the session low of $ 1,258.20 but quickly recovered. "The dollar is weak so there's a little bit of spillover effect from that. "There's position squaring ahead of the jobs data. Nobody wants to get caught with any surprises. The data is scheduled for release on Friday. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 for December delivery settled down 0.3 percent at $ 1,274.40. "We're still in a $ 1,200-$ 1,300 range and there doesn't seem enough of anything material to worry investors sufficiently to break us through that upper level.
Gold prices drifted lower on Thursday to move further away from their strongest level in seven weeks as investors looked ahead to a key batch of U.S. economic data to gauge how it will impact the Federal Reserve's view on monetary policy. Comex gold futures for August were at $1,261.11 a troy ounce by 3:10AM ET , down $10.60, or about 0.8%. It touched its highest since June 14 at $1,273.30 earlier this week. Prices of the yellow metal ended marginally lower on Wednesday, as a recent rally showed signs of fatigue. Gold has been well-supported in recent weeks as fading expectations for a third Fed rate hike this year combined with deepening political turmoil in the White House boosted the appeal of the precious metal. Investors were turning their attention to upcoming U.S. economic data for fresh clues on the timing of the Fed's balance sheet reduction and its ability to raise interest rates again this year.

Global demand for gold fell 14 percent in the first half of this year due mainly to a sharp decline in purchases by exchange traded funds, the World Gold Council said in a report on Thursday. Central bank buying also fell slightly in the first half but purchases of bars, coins and jewellery grew thanks to strong demand in India and Turkey, the industry-funded WGC said in its latest Gold Demand Trends report. Gold-backed ETFs saw record inflows last year to match a 30 percent rise in gold prices between January and June. But with prices rising only around 8 percent in the same period this year, funds added only 56 tonnes in the second quarter, down 76 percent from last year, bringing first half inflows to 167.9 tonnes. European ETFs accounted for 76 percent of first half inflows taking their holdings to a record 978 tonnes. "This year demand is a little more balanced," said Alistair Hewitt, the WGC's head of market intelligence. "While we saw huge inflows into ETFs last year, the physical markets of jewellery, bars and coins slumped to multi-year lows." Total global demand for gold amounted to 2,004 tonnes in January-June, down from 2,318.7 tonnes in the same period last year. For the second quarter alone, demand was 953 tonnes, the lowest quarterly total in two years. Jewellery purchases rose 8 percent over April-June helped by a rebound in buying in India ahead of a new sales tax and in Turkey thanks to a more stable economy, but first half buying remained below 1,000 tonnes for only the fourth time since 2000. Purchases of gold bars and coins were up 13 percent in the second quarter and 11 percent in the first half as Chinese, Indian and Turkish demand increased.

ENERGY
Oil prices edged lower on Monday, as market players looked ahead to a highly-anticipated meeting of some oil ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC producers to assess how the group can increase compliance with production cuts that began at the start of the year. The two-day gathering that begins later in the day in Abu Dhabi will discuss members’ compliance levels to the agreed-upon global production limits that run through March 2018. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract was at $49.34 a barrel by 3:10AM ET, down 22 cents, or around 0.4%. Elsewhere, Brent oil for October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London shed 23 cents to $52.19 a barrel. Oil prices settled higher on Friday, aided by signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production, but they still ended the week with a small loss amid renewed concerns over OPEC’s compliance with the deal to curb production. OPEC and some non-OPEC producers, including Russia, have agreed since the start of the year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the deal has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output.

Oil prices edged down on Monday but still held near nine-week highs, supported by robust U.S. jobs data last week and a slight fall in the U.S. drill rig count, even as rising output from OPEC reined in crude markets. Global benchmark Brent crude futures LCOc1 were down 17 cents, or 0.32 percent, at $52.25 a barrel at 0540 GMT. U.S. crude futures CLc1 were down 15 cents, or 0.30 percent, at $49.43 per barrel. Prices for both benchmarks have been holding near their highest since late May, when oil producers led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries extended a deal to reduce output by 1.8 million barrels per day until the end of next March. Crude oil prices rose strongly as investors viewed data as a positive sign for oil demand in the United States ... A small fall in the number of drill rigs operating in the U.S. also supported prices. U.S. employers added an above-forecast 209,000 workers in July and raised wages, the U.S. Labor Department said on Friday in its monthly jobs report. drillers cut one oil rig in the week to Aug. 4, bringing the total count down to 765, energy services firm Baker Hughes BHGE.N also said on Friday. Despite developments in the United States that have supported prices, global oil markets remain under pressure from high and rising production, analysts said. Sector production is up 2 percent year-to-date Volumes should increase by another 200,000 barrels per day over 2H17 if 2017-guidance is to be achieved," U.S. investment bank Jefferies said in a note to clients on Monday.

Oil prices settled higher on Friday, aided by signs of a possible slowdown in U.S. shale production, but they still ended the week with a small loss amid renewed concerns over OPEC’s compliance with the deal to curb production. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract tacked on 55 cents, or around 1.1%, to end at $49.58 a barrel by close of trade Friday. Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for October delivery rose 41 cents, or about 0.8%, to settle at $52.42 a barrel by close of trade. Friday's gains came after weekly figures from energy services company Baker Hughes showed that the number of active rigs drilling for oil fell by one to 765 last week. It was the second decline in the past three weeks, suggesting early signs of moderating domestic production growth. Despite Friday's upbeat performance, WTI lost 13 cents, or about 0.3%, for the week, while Brent dipped 10 cents, or roughly 0.2%, amid indications that OPEC exports rose to their highest level of the year, despite the current pact to reduce output. OPEC and some non-OPEC producers have agreed since the start of the year to slash 1.8 million barrels per day in supply until March 2018. So far, the deal has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output. Elsewhere on Nymex, gasoline futures for September climbed 1.4 cents, or about 0.9%, to end at $1.646 on Friday. It closed around 1.8% lower for the week.

Crude dipped in Asia on Tuesday as markets await China trade figures slated an imports in focus and look ahead to industry estimates on inventories in the U.S. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery eased 0.16% to $49.31 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent was last quoted at $52.24 a barrel. China is expected to report exports rose 10.9% in July year-on-year, down from an 11.3% gain in June, while imports rose 16.6%, compared to a 17.2% increase in the previous month for a trade balance surplus of $46.08 billion, wider than the $ 42.77 billion in June. Late on Tuesday, the American Petroleum Institute will provide its estimates of crude oil and refined product stocks at the end of last week to be followed by official data on Wednesday from the Energy Information Administration. Earlier, Japan said its unadjusted current account fro June reached ¥ 935 billion, wider than the ¥ 814 billion in surplus seen, but narrower than the ¥ 1.654 trillion in May. Overnight, crude futures settled lower on Monday, amid renewed oversupply jitters, following an uptick in U.S. output to a two-year high while concerns over Opec’s wavering commitment to production cuts continued as a meeting of Opec and non-Opec members got underway. Fresh from posting a weekly loss, crude futures showed little sign of a rebound, as data showed U.S. production rose to a two-year high while a rebound in Libyan oil output also added to oversupply concerns.
Asia's loadings of West African oil are on track to rebound to a six-month high in August on a revival in China's appetite, a Reuters survey of traders and shipping data showed on Monday. Loadings for Asia are expected to reach 2.18 million barrels per day in August, some 11 percent higher than the previous month and the highest since February. The increase was driven primarily by an increase in bookings to China, which rose significantly on-the-month to a five-month high of just over 1.4 million bpd. Chinese refineries are looking to stock up for the third and fourth quarter, when refineries come out of late summer maintenance and look to produce as much diesel as they can. "They're looking for more medium crudes, price permitting. Diesel demand growth is doing quite well. Many West African grades, including most of those loading in Angola, are medium crudes, which have a high yield of middle distillates such as diesel. Additionally, while China's state refiner Sinopec Corp considered cutting fuel output in the third quarter to deal with a domestic excess, Crude oil imports could remain elevated regardless. they'd cut meant they wouldn't run full throttle, the way they were at the beginning of the year.

Oil markets dipped on Friday, with U.S. crude remaining below $50 per barrel, restrained by rising output from the United States as well as producer club OPEC. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $48.95 per barrel at 0516 GMT, down 8 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close and around 90 cents for the week. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $51.93 a barrel, down 8 cents, or 0.15 percent, from their last close and around 70 cents for the week. Traders said prices were being pulled down by rising output, although strong demand prevented bigger drops. "Developments this week have seen some pessimism return to markets," National Australia Bank said in its August outlook. "We forecast Brent to trade at around $53 per barrel in Q4 2017," it said.

Oil markets opened weak on Friday, with U.S. crude remaining below $50 per barrel, restrained by rising output from the United States as well as producer club OPEC. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $49.03 per barrel at 0136 GMT, flat from their last close but around 80 cents below their opening value this week. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $ 51.99 a barrel, down 2 cents from their last close and around 60 cents below the start of the week. Traders said that prices were being held in check around current levels - rising output prevented increases, while strong demand prevented drops. Crude oil exports by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries rose to a record high in July, driven largely by soaring exports from the group's African members, according to a report by Thomson Reuters Oil Research this week. July's 26.11 million barrels per day in exports marked a rise of 370,000 bpd, most of which came from Nigeria, which posted a rise of 260,000 bpd in shipments. the United States, oil production has hit 9.43 million barrels per day, the highest level since August 2015 and up 12 percent from its most recent low in June last year. Quarterly reporting season has seen a swathe of shale producers announce aggressive production targets, despite weak prices as they cut costs and become more efficient.
Crude oil prices held mostly steady in Asia on Friday ahead of weekly rig count data from Baker Hughes expected to set the tone. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery traded flat at $49.03 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent gained 0.19% to $52.01 a barrel. Overnight, crude futures settled lower on Thursday, as investors looked ahead to an Opec meeting next week for fresh insight into the oil cartel’s commitment to improve compliance with the deal to curb production. Investor sentiment on oil soured as concerns over an uptick in Opec supplies offset bullish data showing U.S. gasoline demand hit a record high while crude stockpiles dropped for the fifth straight week. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 1.5m barrels in the week ended July 28, below expectations of a draw of about only 2.9m barrels, the Energy Information Administration reported Wednesday. Opec output hit a 2017 high of 33 million bpd in July, up 90,000 bpd from the previous month, a Reuters survey showed earlier this week, despite the group’s pledge to curb production. Concerns over growing Opec production come ahead of a highly anticipating meeting among Opec members next week, as the group seeks to reaffirm its commitment to increase compliance with the deal to curb production. In May, Opec and non-Opec members agreed to extend production cuts for a period of nine months until March, but stuck to production cuts of 1.8 million bpd agreed in November last year.
Oil prices were lower on Thursday, as investors weighed bloated global inventories against an uptick in demand. The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude September contract was at $49.34 a barrel by 3:30AM ET , down 25 cents, or around 0.5%. Elsewhere, Brent oil for October delivery on the ICE Futures Exchange in London shed 25 cents to $52.11 a barrel. Oil prices finished higher on Wednesday, as investors viewed weekly U.S. inventory data on crude and refined products as bullish. The Energy Information Administration reported a 1.5 million barrel drop in U.S. crude supplies last week, below analysts’ expectations. However, gasoline inventories fell by a more-than-expected 2.5 million barrels while demand hit a record above 9.8 million barrels a day, the EIA said. Meanwhile, oil traders looked ahead to a technical meeting of some OPEC and non-OPEC producers in Abu Dhabi next week to assess how the group can increase compliance with production cuts that began at the start of this year. So far, the output deal has had little impact on global inventory levels due to rising supply from producers not participating in the accord, such as Libya and Nigeria, as well as a relentless increase in U.S. shale output.
Oil fell on Thursday as a rally that has pushed up prices by almost 10 percent since early last week lost momentum despite renewed signs of a gradually tightening U.S. market. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading down 33 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $52.03 per barrel at 0711 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $49.28 per barrel, down 31 cents, or 0.6 percent. Strong demand in the United States was supporting prices, while high supplies from OPEC producers were restricting further gains, traders said, pointing to a range-bound market. "Both contracts appear to be moving into a range consolidation mode. U.S. crude prices held below $50 per barrel despite record gasoline demand of 9.84 million barrels per day last week and a fall in commercial crude inventories in the week to July 28 of 1.5 million barrels to 481.9 million barrels , according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. below levels seen this time last year, an indication of a tightening U.S. market. Traders said ongoing high supplies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries were capping prices. The high OPEC supplies come despite a pledge by the group, supported by other producers including Russia, to restrict output by 1.8 million bpd between January this year and March 2018 to tighten the market. Trading data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that crude oil shipments by OPEC and Russia, which excludes pipeline supplies, hit a 2017-high of around 32 million bpd in July, up from around 30.5 million bpd in January.

Crude oil benchmarks drifted weaker in Asia on Thursday, shrugging of some demand signals from the U.S. overnight and waiting for more on rig count figures by Baker Hughes and OPEC compliance with output cuts. On the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for September delivery fell 0.36% to $49.41 a barrel, while on London's Intercontinental Exchange, Brent dropped 0.40% to $52.15 a barrel. The rig count figures are a proxy for U.S. shale oil output - with both the number of rigs drilling and output gaining steadily in the past year as prices hove around $50 a barrel. Overnight, crude futures settled higher on Wednesday, as investors cheered data showing supplies of U.S. crude fell for the fifth-straight week while refinery activity continued to grow. Crude prices recovered from a 2% plunge sustained the prior session, after a report from the Energy Information Administration showed crude and gasoline stockpiles fell last week, pointing to an uptick in demand for crude and refinery activity. Inventories of U.S. crude fell by roughly 1.5m barrels in the week ended July 28, below expectations of a draw of about 2.9m barrels. It was fifth-straight week of falling crude inventories. Gasoline inventories, one of the products that crude is refined into, fell by roughly 2.5m barrels, confounding expectations of a draw of 636,000 barrels while distillate stockpiles fell by 150,000 barrels, compared to expectations of a decline of 525,000 barrels.

Oil dipped on Thursday as a rally that has pushed up prices by almost 10 percent since early last week lost momentum despite renewed signs of a gradually tightening U.S. market. Strong demand in the United States provided prices with support, traders said, but ongoing high supplies from OPEC producers were restricting further gains. Brent crude futures LCOc1 , the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading down 17 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $52.19 per barrel at 0147 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $49.44 per barrel, down 15 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last settlement. U.S. crude prices held below $50 per barrel despite record gasoline demand of 9.84 million barrels per day last week and a fall in commercial crude inventories in the week to July 28 of 1.5 million barrels to 481.9 million barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. below levels seen this time last year, an indication of a tightening U.S. market. Traders said ongoing high supplies by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries were capping prices. The high OPEC supplies come despite a pledge by the group, supported by other producers including Russia, to restrict output by 1.8 million bpd between January this year and March 2018 in order to tighten the market. Trading data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that crude oil shipments by OPEC and Russia, which excludes pipeline supplies, hit a 2017 high of around 32 million bpd in July, up from around 30.5 million bpd in January.

Oil prices fell on Wednesday, with rising U.S. fuel inventories pulling U.S. crude back below $50 per barrel, while ongoing high OPEC supplies weighed on international prices. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $48.76 per barrel at 0646 GMT, down 40 cents, or 0.8 percent, from its last settlement. That came after the contract opened above $50 for the first time since May 25 on Tuesday. crude LCOc1 , the international oil benchmark, was down 39 cents, down 0.8 percent from the previous close, at $51.39 per barrel. The American Petroleum Institute's said that U.S. crude stocks rose by 1.8 million barrels in the week ending July 28 to 488.8 million, denting hopes that recent inventory draws were a sign of a tightening U.S. market. Halley of futures brokerage OANDA said following the API's report "traders stampeded for the door to lock in profits from the last eight days' bull-run." Official storage figures are due to be published by the U.S. Energy Information Administration later on Wednesday. Outside the United States, Brent was pulled down by reports this week showing production from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries at a 2017 high of 33 million barrels per day (bpd). That is despite OPEC's pledge to restrict output along with other non-OPEC producers, including Russia, by 1.8 million bpd between January this year and March 2018. Economist Intelligence Unit said that despite the cuts "the global market remains oversupplied," and it warned that "there is no guarantee that further cuts will be sufficient to rebalance the oversupplied global oil market. Energy consultancy Douglas Westwood reckons that this year's oil market will be slightly undersupplied but that the glut will return in 2018, and last to 2021.


BASE METAL’S OUTLOOK :

Trading Ideas:
COPPER -
Copper trading range for the day is 401.9-416.7.
Copper gained as soaring steel and iron ore prices in China brightened the outlook for growth and industrial demand.
Premiums to obtain physical delivery of copper either in Shanghai or enroute to Shanghai fell, reflecting falling physical demand due to high prices.
Hedge funds and money managers boosted their net long position in COMEX copper to a record high in the week to Aug. 1, CFTC data showed.

ZINC -
Zinc trading range for the day is 176.1-187.9.
Zinc prices gained as zinc inventories are still at low levels and some smelters have yet to totally recover from maintenance.
Combined zinc inventories in Shanghai, Tianjin and Guangdong were largely stable at 122,200 mt last week.
Zinc inventories in Tianjin grew slightly further due to arriving shipments from other regions and weak consumption.

ALUMINIUM -
Aluminium trading range for the day is 120.1-128.3.
Aluminium ended with gains on prospects of supply shutdowns in top producer China.
Impact on aluminum capacity and captive power plants from environmental factor will encourage investors to raise bullish bets.
Japan's economy was expected to grow for a sixth straight quarter in April-June, buoyed by domestic demand.







BASE METAL

Nickel futures down on profit-booking - ( 05 - AUG- 2017 )
Nickel futures traded 0.42 per cent down at Rs 656.20 per kg today as participants cut down their holdings to book profits at current levels. Besides, sluggish demand from alloy-makers in the domestic spot market too weighed on metal prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this month contracts shed Rs 2.80, or 0.42 per cent, to Rs 656.20 per kg in a business turnover of 208 lots. Also, metal for delivery in the September fell by Rs 2.70, or 0.41 per cent to trade at Rs 661 per kg in five lots. Market analysts said the fall in nickel prices was mostly due to profit-booking by participants at existing levels amid low demand at the domestic market from alloy-makers.

Copper futures marginally down on weak demand ( 05 - AUG - 2017 )
Copper prices moved down by 0.30 per cent to Rs 405.50 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down their bets amid muted demand at spot markets. Copper for delivery in August shed Rs 1.20, or 0.30 per cent, to Rs 405.50 per kg in a business turnover of 247 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange. Likewise, the metal for delivery in November traded lower by Rs 1.05 or 0.25 per cent to Rs 412.10 per kg in 14 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by speculators amid a low demand at domestic spot markets mainly led to fall in copper prices at futures trade here.

✍ NICKEL - ( 04 - AUG - 2017 )
Nickel futures traded 0.56 per cent down at Rs 654.20 per kg today as speculators reduced their exposure, in keeping with a weak trend at the domestic spot market due to low demand. Besides, profit-booking weighed on sentiment. At Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this month shed Rs 3.70, or 0.56 per cent, to Rs 654.20 per kg in a business turnover of 1,192 lots. The metal for delivery in September too fell by Rs 3.10, or 0.47 per cent, to trade at Rs 659 per kg in 21 lots. Market analysts said the fall in nickel prices was mostly in tune with a weak trend in base metals at the domestic markets due to sluggish demand.

✍ COPPER ( 04 - AUG - 2017 )
Copper prices moved down by 0.34 per cent to Rs 406.80 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down their bets amid subdued demand at the spot market. Copper for delivery in August shed Rs 1.40, or 0.34 per cent, to Rs 406.50 per kg, in a business turnover of 10 lots at Multi Commodity Exchange. Likewise, the metal for delivery in November traded lower by Rs 1.20, or 0.29 per cent, to Rs 413.15 per kg in 10 lots. Analysts said copper prices fell in line with a weak trend in industrial metals following sluggish demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market.

✍ LEAD ( 03 - AUG - 2017 )
Lead prices eased by 0.30 per cent to Rs 148.75 per kg in futures trade today as participants cut down their bets amid muted demand at the domestic spot market. Besides, profit-booking weighed on the prices. At Multi Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in August was trading down 45 paise, or 0.30 per cent, at Rs 148.75 per kg in a business turnover of 443 lots. The metal for delivery September also fell by 50 paise, or 0.30 per cent, to trade at Rs 149.45 per kg with a business volume of 38 lots. Marketmen said that apart from muted demand from battery- makers at domestic markets, profit-booking by participants kept pressure on lead futures here.

✍ NICKEL - ( 02 - AUG - 2017 )
Nickel prices were trading lower by 0.57 per cent to Rs 645.80 per kg in futures trade today amid profit-booking by speculators and easing demand at the domestic spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in July fell by Rs 3.70, or 0.57 per cent, to Rs 645.80 per kg in a business turnover of 824 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by Rs 3.60, or 0.55 per cent, to Rs 650.20 per kg in 272 lots. Marketmen said profit-booking by participants at prevailing levels amid fall in demand from alloy-makers in the spot market, mainly influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

✍ ZINC ( 02 - AUG - 2017 )
Zinc prices declined by 0.53 per cent to 178.45 per kg in futures market today as speculators cut down positions, taking negative cues from spot market on tepid demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in July slipped by 95 paise, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 178.45 per kg in a business turnover of 2,164 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by a similar margin at Rs 178.65 per kg in 292 lots. Market analysts attributed the weakness in zinc futures to offloading of positions by participants amid sluggish demand from consuming industries in the physical market.

✍ COPPER ( 01 - AUG - 2017)
Copper futures fell 0.64 per cent to Rs 412 per kg today as speculators booked profits at prevailing high levels amid low demand at spot markets. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in far-month November declined by Rs 2.65, or 0.64 per cent to Rs 412 per kg in a business turnover of 44 lots. The metal for delivery in August month shed Rs 2.30 or 0.56 per cent to Rs 405.70 per kg in a business volume of 832 lots. Analysts attributed the fall to offloading of positions by speculators at prevailing higher levels coupled with subdued spot demand.

✍ NICKEL ( 31 - July - 2017 )
Nickel prices were trading lower by 0.57 per cent to Rs 645.80 per kg in futures trade today amid profit-booking by speculators and easing demand at the domestic spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in July fell by Rs 3.70, or 0.57 per cent, to Rs 645.80 per kg in a business turnover of 824 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by Rs 3.60, or 0.55 per cent, to Rs 650.20 per kg in 272 lots. Marketmen said profit-booking by participants at prevailing levels amid fall in demand from alloy-makers in the spot market, mainly influenced nickel prices at futures trade.

✍ ZINC ( 31 - July - 2017 )
Zinc prices declined by 0.53 per cent to 178.45 per kg in futures market today as speculators cut down positions, taking negative cues from spot market on tepid demand from consuming industries. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, zinc for delivery in July slipped by 95 paise, or 0.53 per cent, to Rs 178.45 per kg in a business turnover of 2,164 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in August was trading lower by a similar margin at Rs 178.65 per kg in 292 lots. Market analysts attributed the weakness in zinc futures to offloading of positions by participants amid sluggish demand from consuming industries in the physical market.


NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
FUNDAMENTAL UPDATES OF NCDEX MARKET -
Chana futures up 1.52% on spot demand ( 07 - AUG- 2017 )
Chana prices spurtd by 1.52 per cent to Rs 5,152 per quintal in futures trade today as participants created fresh positions, driven by rising demand from dal mills in the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in October increased by Rs 77, or 1.52 per cent to Rs 5,152 per quintal with an open interest of 12,270 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in September shot up by Rs 60, or 1.17 per cent, to Rs 5,182 per quintal in 15,860 lots. Analysts said fresh positions built up by traders due to rising demand from dal mills in view of festive season amid restricted supplies from producing belts, mainly pushed up chana prices at futures trade.

Refined soya oil futures soften 0.41% on sluggish demand ( 05 - AUG - 2017 )
Refined soya oil prices moved down by 0.41 per cent to Rs 636 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators reduced their exposure amid subdued demand in the spot market against ample stocks position. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August month fell by Rs 2.60, or 0.41 per cent to Rs 636 per 10 kg with an open interest of 33,390 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September month contracts shed Rs 2.35, or 0.36 per cent to Rs 642.65 per 10 kg in 48,790 lots. Analysts said cutting down of positions by traders on the back of easing demand in the spot market against adequate stocks position mainly weighed on refined soya oil prices in futures trade.


Ample stocks drag wheat futures down by 0.78% ( 05 - AUG - 2017 )
Wheat prices were lower by 0.78 per cent to Rs 1,654 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators reduced their exposure amid sufficient stock position at the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, wheat for delivery in September fell by Rs 13, or 0.78 per cent, to Rs 1,654 per quintal with an open interest of 9,230 lots. Likewise, the wheat for delivery in August contracts traded lower by Rs 12, or 0.73 per cent, to Rs 1,633 per quintal in 12,930 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders, triggered by sufficient stockists position on increased supplies in the physical market against lower demand from flour mills, mainly influenced wheat prices at futures trade.

Cardamom futures slide 0.78% on low demand ( 05 - AUG - 2017 )
Cardamom prices eased 0.78 per cent to Rs 1,098 per kg in futures trade today as speculators cut down their positions, tracking a weak trend at spot markets on muted demand. In futures trading at the Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in September month declined by Rs 8.60, or 0.78 per cent to Rs 1,098 per kg in business turnover of 19 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants owing to subdued demand in the physical markets against adequate stocks mainly weighed on cardamom prices in futures trade.

Tepid demand drags crude palm oil futures down by 0.21% ( 04 - AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices softened by 0.21 per cent to Rs 480.50 per 10 kg in futures trade today, as speculators reduced their exposure amid sluggish demand in the spot market against adequate stock position. At Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August declined by Re 1, or 0.21 per cent to Rs 480.50 per 10 kg in business turnover of 14 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in September contracts shed 80 paise, or 0.17 per cent, to Rs 480.50 per 10 kg in 9 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders following easing demand in the spot market against ample stocks mainly led to decline in crude palm oil prices at futures trade.

Mentha oil futures slip 2.04% on profit-booking ( 04 - AUG - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices drifted lower by 2.04 per cent to Rs 1,158 per kg in futures market today as speculators booked profits, driven by fading demand from consuming industries at the spot markets. Ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing regions also fuelled the downtrend. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in September month fell by Rs 24.10, or 2.04 per cent, to Rs 1,158 per kg in business turnover of 97 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in August month contracts traded lower by Rs 22.70, or 1.94 per cent to Rs 1,147 per kg in 529 lots. Marketmen said besides profit-booking by participants, decline in demand from consuming industries at existing levels in spot market and ample stocks position on higher supplies from Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh pulled down mentha oil prices in futures trade.

✍ COTTON - ( 03 - AUG - 2017 )
Cotton traders expect Indian cotton prices to remain firm till October when the new crop arrives, or even rise marginally from the second half of August. “Cotton prices are likely to increase from the second half of August as the there's very little stock in the country, while the new crop may to be delayed due to the late sowing in Maharashtra and Gujarat, There are four factors responsible for projection of firm price trends: tight position of cotton year-ending stocks, expected delay in arrival of new kharif crop due to delayed sowing, likely rise in demand from yarn manufacturers as more players get into GST, and currency situation.

✍ CHANA ( 03 - AUG - 2017 )
Chana prices softened by 0.37 per cent to Rs 4,900 per quintal in futures market today as speculators reduced their exposure, driven by easing demand in the spot market against adequate stocks. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in September moved down by Rs 18, or 0.37 per cent, to Rs 4,900 per quintal with an open interest of 17,360 lots. Likewise, the commodity for delivery in October contracts traded lower by a similar margin at Rs 4,871 per quintal in 11,050 lots. Market analysts said cutting down of positions by traders owing to subdued demand in the physical market against enough stock position primarily led to the decline in the chana prices.

✍ CRUDE PALM OIL -( 03- AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices declined by 0.31 per cent to Rs 488 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators cut down positions amid easing demand in the spot market against adequate stock position. At Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in September fell by Rs 1.50, or 0.31 per cent, to Rs 488 per 10 kg in a business turnover of 21 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in August contracts shed Rs 1.40, or 0.29 per cent, to Rs 488.30 per 10 kg in 79 lots. Analysts said trimming of positions by traders owing to tepid demand in the spot market against ample stocks mainly influenced crude palm oil prices in futures trade.

✍ REFINED SOYA OIL - ( 03- AUG - 2017 )
Refined soya oil prices were down 0.31 per cent to Rs 652 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators reduced exposure amid fall in demand at the spot market against ample stocks. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in September drifted lower by Rs 2, or 0.31 per cent to Rs 652 per 10 kg with an open interest of 40,120 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in August month contracts weakened by Rs 1.70, or 0.26 per cent to Rs 646.10 per 10 kg in 36,500 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders due to fall in demand at the spot market against adequate stocks position mainly weighed on refined soya oil prices at futures trade.

✍ CARDAMOM - ( 02 - AUG - 2017 )
Cardamom prices fell further by 1.53 per cent to Rs 1,142 per kg in futures market today as speculators lowered their exposure, taking negative cues from the spot market because of muted demand. At Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in August fell Rs 17.70, or 1.53 per cent, to Rs 1,142 per kg in a business turnover of 40 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in September contracts declined by Rs 13.30, or 1.22 per cent, to Rs 1,078 per kg in 24 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by participants owing to easing demand in the physical market against adequate stocks mainly pulled cardamom prices down in futures trade.

✍ MENTHA OIL - ( 01 - AUG - 2017 )
Mentha oil prices touched the upper circuit today by rising 4 per cent to Rs 1,095.70 per kg in futures trade as speculators raised bets on the back of strong demand from the spot market. Besides, tight stock position following a drop in arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh provided support to the prices. At Multi Commodity Exchange, mentha oil for delivery in August jumped by Rs 42.10, or 4 per cent, to Rs 1,095.70 per kg in a business turnover of 323 lots. On similar lines, the oil for delivery in July contracts traded higher by Rs 31.30, or 3 per cent, to Rs 1,075.50 per kg in 2 lots. Analysts said higher holding by participants, driven by surging demand from consuming industries in the spot market against restricted supplies from Chandausi, mainly pushed up the mentha oil prices.

✍ CHANA ( 01 - AUG - 2017 )
Chana prices went up by 2.16 per cent to Rs 4,922 per quintal in futures market today as traders built up fresh positions amid uptick in demand at the spot market. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, chana for delivery in September climbed Rs 104, or 2.16 per cent, to Rs 4,922 per quintal with an open interest of 14,800 lots. Similarly, the commodity for delivery in October contracts firmed up by Rs 97, or 2.02 per cent, to Rs 4,903 per quintal in 8,690 lots. Analysts attributed the sharp rise in chana prices in futures trade to fresh positions created by speculators, driven by pick-up in demand in the spot market amid pause in supplies from producing regions.

✍ CARDAMOM ( 01 - AUG - 2017 )
Cardamom prices surged 2.13 per cent to Rs 1,088 per kg in futures trade today as participants enlarged positions, taking positive cues from the spot market on surge in domestic and exports demand. At Multi Commodity Exchange, cardamom for delivery in September shot up Rs 22.70, or 2.13 per cent, to Rs 1,088 per kg in a business turnover of one lot. Likewise, the spice for delivery in August contracts traded higher by Rs 13.10, or 1.14 per cent, to Rs 1,157.30 per kg in 9 lots. The widening of positions by participants, tracking a firm trend at the spot market on rising domestic and export demand, against tight stock position due to fall in supplies from producing belts supported cardamom prices.

✍ JEERA - ( 01 - AUG - 2017 )
Jeera prices surged by 1.22 per cent to Rs 19,425 per quintal in futures trade today as speculators enlarged positions on the back of rising demand in the spot market. Besides, tight stocks position following drop in arrivals from producing belts due to rain in Gujarat, too fuelled the uptrend. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, jeera for delivery in August climbed by Rs 235, or 1.22 per cent to Rs 19,425 per quintal with an open interest of 8,844 lots. Similarly, the spice for delivery in September contracts was trading higher by Rs 210, or 1.08 per cent to Rs 19,630 per quintal in 8,268 lots. Traders said widening of positions built up by participants amid pick-up in domestic as well as export demand in the physical market mainly led to the sharp rise in jeera prices at futures trade.

✍ REFINED SOYA OIL ( 01 - AUG - 2017 )
Amid pick up in domestic demand at spot market and restricted supplies from producing regions, refined soya oil prices were up 0.52 per cent to Rs 649.50 per 10 kg in futures trading today as speculators built up fresh positions. At the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange, refined soya oil for delivery in August went up by Rs 3.35, or 0.52 per cent to Rs 649.50 per 10 kg with an open interest of 40,420 lots. Likewise, the oil for delivery in September was trading higher by Rs 2.80, or 0.43 pr cent to Rs 656.50 per 10 kg in 30,870 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by traders after demand picked up in the physical market against restricted supplies from producing regions.

✍ CRUDE PALM OIL ( 31 - AUG - 2017 )
Crude palm oil prices went up by 0.76 per cent to Rs 492.70 per 10 kg in futures market today as speculators built up fresh positions amid uptick in domestic demand at spot market. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in August rose by Rs 3.70, or 0.76 per cent to Rs 492.70 per 10 kg in business turnover of 154 lots. Similarly, the oil for delivery in July contracts was also edged up by 10 paise, or 0.02 per cent to Rs 488 per 10 kg in 18 lots. Analysts said fresh positions created by participants due to pick-up in demand in the physical markets against restricted supplies from producing regions mainly led to the rise in palm oil prices at futures trade.

✍ MENTHA OIL ( 31 - July - 2017 )
Futures contracts of mentha oil and cardamom saw an upswing on MCX this week in the agri-commodity basket. On NCDEX a number of commodit ies like guar gum complex, soybean and RM seed showed an upwards trend. The mentha futures for August delivery is heading for its highest weekly gain of 6.6% in last one year. It has hit nearly four months high to close above Rs 1050 per kg. The prices have jumped more than 16.7% during the current month, which is highest monthly increase since March 2012, when prices jumped 22%.

For Quick Trial – 08962000225
Or mail us here: info@ways2capital.com or visit http://www.ways2capital.com/free-trial.php
Contact 0731-6626222
Toll Free – 1800-3010-2007
Give a Missed Call for Free Trial - 09699997717
For Reports And Tracksheets - http://www.ways2capital.com/downloads.php

Submitted by:0731-6626222
Disclaimer: Pressbox disclaims any inaccuracies in the content contained in these releases. If you would like a release removed please send an email to remove@pressbox.co.uk together with the url of the release.