Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital 8 Jan 2018
Added: (Mon Jan 08 2018)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
Gold dipped in choppy trading on Friday as traders cashed in gains from the metal's
rally to 3-1/2-month highs this week and as the dollar rose even after weaker-than-
expected U.S. payrolls data for December. The metal remained on track for a fourth
straight weekly gain, something it has not done since April although it posted an
annual increase of 13 percent in 2017. The U.S. December non-farm payrolls report
was weaker than expected. The dollar dipped briefly, then rose as investors reck-
oned the data would not deter U.S. Federal Reserve from raising interest rates mul-
tiple times this year though at a gradual pace.
Zinc hit its highest in more than a decade on Friday as concerns over market tight-
ness persisted, while copper hit a two-week low as Chinese investor interest was
muted with the Lunar New Year holidays looming. Zinc stocks held in London Metal
Exchange warehouses fell 250 tonnes to their lowest since late 2008, data showed
on Friday, down about a third from their October peak. The global zinc market
deficit widened to 36,900 tonnes in October from a revised deficit of 35,900 ton-
nes in September, the latest industry data show.
Oil prices fell on Friday, dropping from highs last seen in 2015, as soaring U.S. pro-
duction undermined a 10 percent rally from December lows that was driven by
tightening supply and political tensions in OPEC member Iran. Traders said political
tensions in Iran, had pushed prices higher. Oil prices have received general sup-
port from production cuts led by OPEC and Russia, which started in January last
year and are set to last through 2018, as well as from strong economic growth and
MCX Natural gas may note some gains tracking cues from international exchange
but upside is limited. NYMEX natural gas gained more than 1% to trade above
$2.8/mmBtu after Friday’s sharp 3% decline. Supporting gas price is forecast of
cold weather in US which will keep heating demand high.
As per government data, Jeera exports during first seven month of FY 2017/18
(Apr-Sep) is 88,229 tonnes, up 11% compared to last year exports volume for
the same period. India's jeera exports in October increase by 37% on year to
10,402 tn. In Gujarat, Jeera acreage is up by 38% to 3.8 lakh hectares as on 1-
Jan-18. Last year, it was 2.8 lakh hectares at that same time.
Turmeric Apr contract fall for the fifth consecutive day on Friday mainly on
short covering by the Market participants tracking weakness in physical mar-
ket. The supplies have improved during last one month due to new season
arrivals, government auctions and lower exports data.
OIL & OILSEEDS
NCDEX Soybean closed 3.2% high last week supported by improving in
physical demand. Moreover, the supplies have been diminishing slowly in
the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during December com-
pared to last year.
Mustard Jan futures closed lower due to profit booking tracking weak physi-
cal demand. Market is still expecting for some demand side fundamentals as
downside looks limited. Currently, mustard is trading lower than its MSP
due to reports good progress in sowing season and steady demand.
Guar complex futures traded higher last week. Good demand from stockiest
and guar gum producers and reduced supply at major trading centers helped
prices to trade on positive bias during the week. However, guar gum futures
settled marginally down on profit booking and closed the day at Rs.8931/
quintal,Total stock position of guar seed and gum at NCDEX warehouses were
reported at 26188 MT and 22735 MT respectively as on 12th Dec. Total arri-
vals of guar were reported at 30800 bags yesterday at major trading centers
Chana Jan futures closed lower on Friday on profit booking by the market
participants on reports on higher stocks and good sowing progress. As per
government sowing data, area under the chana crop across the country was
up 12.7% on year at 103.8 lakh hectares as on last week. As per government
data, India imported about 5.84 lakh tonnes of chana during Apr-Oct, up by
430% compared the last year imports.
MCX Jan Cotton rose for the eight consecutive week tracking firm interna-
tional prices, good physical demand and improved exports. CCI has procured
around 5 lakh bales this season of which 4 lakh bales have been procured
Calls of the Week (MCX)
Silver prices opened flat in the last week and thereafter consolidated for the whole week in the range of 39000-39350
levels. Prices have broken out from its short term declining trend line resistance in the last week and closed above the
same on weekly basis as appeared on the chart. Also market is sustaining above the level of 39000 indicating positive
trend in coming sessions. Prices are expected to go high above the level of 39400On the lower side immediate support
is placed around 3900 level.
Last week, Nickel prices opened higher and prices corrected sharply for most of the week till low of 782.60. Previously
prices have rallied strongly in the last month after taking strong support at its short term rising trend line. Daily RSI (14)
has given a positive signal. Prices are expected to go higher from these levels towards next strong resistance zone
placed around 830
NCDEX Mustard seed Apr future continued to trade in the range of 4070-4200 for the fourth consecutive trading week.
Price made the low of 4096 during the week and the high of 4174 and settled at 4143/quintal. Price gained by 34
points during the week with higher volume and open interest indicating building of long positions. Arrivals continued
to be steady in the range of 155000 bags. Market is forming lower high on its daily chart indicating selling trend. We
can see pressure on prices from higher level. And we are expecting market can be traded in range.
CBOT Soy oil trading March futures gained by 0.50 c/lb in last week and settled at 33.76. Traders are expecting major
change in the USDA monthly report which also supported higher soy oil price. The trading range for the session is
33.50-34 c/lb. In the domestic market NCDEX Soy oil Feb contract gained by 15 points and settled at 742.35/10 kg.
Price gained with higher volume and OI indicating long accumulation. The NCDEX Feb future is trading higher than the
import parity by 15 points. This may cap the upside in the near term on domestic bourse.
Calls of the Week (FOREX)
In the initial part of the last week, EURINR made a high of 76.9975 but was unable to make the major psychological
resistance level of 77.0000 and closed at 76.6450 with the marginal loss of 0.24% on weekly basis. For this week, trad-
ers can adopt sell from higher levels strategy in it and below the level of 76.3525 it can test the level of 75.9125 during
the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of 76.6525
Last week, GBPINR witnessed downside movement for the entire week and closed at 86.07000 with the overall loss of
0.55% on weekly basis. Technically it’s trading with negative RSI (below 50) and below 200 Days SMA and still looking
week on the chart. For this week, traders can adopt sell from higher levels strategy in it and below the level of 85.9700
it can test the level of 85.4725 during the week. Trades can make buy position in it by maintaining a Stop Loss of
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