Commodity Research Report Ways2Capital Nov 14 2017
Added: (Tue Nov 14 2017)
Pressbox (Press Release) -
MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
The U.S. dollar climbed against its Canadian counterpart on Friday, as the release of downbeat Canadian data dented demand for the local currency, while hopes for an upcoming U.S. tax overhaul boosted the greenback.
The dollar held onto gains against other major currencies in quiet trade on Friday, as hopes for a major U.S. tax reform continued to support amid ongoing speculation over the next head of the Federal Reserve.
UK’s public finances rose less than expected in September, official data showed on Wednesday. In a report, the Office for National Statistics said that UK Public Sector Net Borrowing increased to a seasonally adjusted 5.33 billion, from 4.14 billion in the preceding month whose figure was revised down from 5.09 billion.
Gold prices remained lower on Friday, as the U.S. dollar was still broadly supported by fresh hopes for a major U.S. tax overhaul.
Oil prices fell on Friday and were set for a weekly loss as investors sought to book profits, despite tensions in the Middle East that have slashed supplies of crude.
U.S. existing home sales unexpectedly bounced back in September from a prior decline, bolstering optimism over the health of the housing market, according to a report released on Friday by the National Association of Realtors (NAR).
The European Central Bank is likely to decide next week to ease its asset purchases while avoiding an abrupt cut in their volume, ECB policymaker Ewald Nowotny said on Friday.
Last week, Spot silver prices declined 2.1 percent last week to close at $17 per ounce in line with decline in gold prices and strength in the DX. Also, fall in base metals exerted downside pressure on silver. spot gold prices plunged by 1.9 percent to close at $1280.3 per ounce as dollar gained momentum after the US Senate approved a budget resolution for the 2018 fiscal year. The measure is estimated to add $1.5 trillion to the deficit over the next 10 years, and contains about $4 trillion in spending cuts. Besides, speculation that the eventual successor to U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will favour higher interest rates exerted further pressure. U.S. President Donald Trump was favouring policy hawk John Taylor as the next head of the Fed, Bloomberg reported, pushing the dollar higher and lifting U.S. Treasury yields. Also, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren said the Fed will probably need to raise rates in December and then three or four times "over the course of next year", assuming U.S. unemployment continues to fall and inflation rises. On the MCX, gold prices declined by 1.2 percent last week to close at Rs.29572 per 10 gms.
Gold prices fell on Friday, pressured lower by the stronger U.S. dollar which was boosted after President Donald Trump's plans to overhaul the tax code cleared a critical hurdle.Gold futures for December delivery settled down 0.59% at $1,282.42 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. For the week, the precious metal was down 1.86%, which means it has fallen in five of the past six weeks.
The dollar rose on Friday, making gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, after Senate Republicans approved a budget measure that will allow them to pursue tax cuts without support from the Democratic Party.The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was up 0.61% at 93.57 in late trade. It was its largest one day gain since October 2.The index ended the week up 0.69%, its fifth weekly increase in six weeks.
Investors expect a fiscal boost to push up inflation, adding pressure on the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, known as the "Trumpflation" trade.Gold is highly sensitive to rising rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar, in which it is priced.But Republicans have yet to produce a tax reform bill amid divisions over what cuts to make and how to pay for them and analysts have warned that the White House still faces a long battle to push through its agenda. Elsewhere in precious metals trading, silver was down 1.21% at $17.04 a troy ounce late Friday, bringing its weekly decline to 2.22%, while platinum settled at $926.00.Among base metals, copper pared early gains and closed at $3.169 a pound.
The industrial metal was still up 1.03% for the week after Monday’s rally to three-year highs on the back of upbeat Chinese economic data. The country accounts for almost half the world’s copper consumption.In the week ahead, investors will be watching the European Central Bank meeting for further details on plans to scale back its massive stimulus program.Markets will keep an eye on a preliminary reading of third-quarter U.S. growth to further assess the impact of recent hurricanes on economic activity and how it could affect the Federal Reserve’s view on monetary policy.
Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.Gold prices fell on Friday amid a sharp rise in the dollar on growing expectations of tax reform after the Senate approved the Republican-backed budget.Gold futures for December delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $7.64, or 0.60%, to $1,282.28 a troy ounce.Gold prices struggled to pare losses as sentiment on the dollar turned positive on signs of tax reform bolstered investor expectations of a fiscal lift to the economy amid housing data that topped forecasts.The Senate approved the Republican-back budget on Thursday, a crucial step forward for tax reform, allowing Republicans to move ahead with tax cuts without support from Democrats.Tax reform is widely expected to have an inflationary impact on the economy boosted the greenback, lowering demand for dollar denominated commodities such as gold. Also weighing on gold prices were signs of improvement in economy the after existing home sales rose 0.7% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.39 million units last month, The National Association of Realtors said on Friday.Some analysts warned gold prices could come under increased pressure as the precious metal is likely to test key support levels."We seem to once again be ready to test technical support around $1,275-$1,270," said Mitsubishi analyst Jonathan Butler. "If we look at the chart, it's a classic head and shoulders pattern here and the danger is we'll break lower to a level at $1,250 or even below." In other metals trading, silver futures fell 1.14% to $17.06 while platinum futures added 0.02% to $926.
✍ BASE METAL
LME Copper prices touched fresh three year highs of $7177/t last week as China’s third quarter GDP turned in line with expectations at 6.8 percent while industrial production jumped to three month highs of 6.6 percent in September 2017. Also, supply tightness was confirmed by latest figures from International Copper Study Group (ICSG), which showed the market saw a 75,000-tonne deficit in the first half of the year. However, high expectations ahead of China’s National Congress and rising stocks at both LME and Shanghai warehouses limited sharp upside. MCX Copper prices traded higher by 1.7 percent last week to close at Rs.455.5 per kg. LME base metals except Copper traded lower last week as stronger DX and cautious stance ahead of China’s National Congress exerted pressure. MCX base metals traded lower apart from Copper and Aluminium in line with international trends.Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday opens a critical Communist Party congress expected to cement his authority with a closely watched address signaling how he intends to put that power to use during a second five-year term. As per INSG, The global market for nickel swung into a wider deficit of 6,700 tonnes in August from the month before. The Chinese government's campaign to reduce smog pollution and whittle down excess production is set to take around a tenth of its aluminum smelting capacity out of the market by the year-end, potentially adding fuel to a months-long price rally. In the economic release of US yesterday, U.S. industrial production rebounded modestly in September as the lingering effects of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma hobbled activity at factories, but the outlook for the industrial sector remains bullish amid a strengthening global economy and weakening dollar.
Stocks decreased nominally by 0.55% and cancelled warrants decreased massively by 2.58%. The Chinese government's campaign to reduce smog pollution and whittle down excess production is set to take around a tenth of its aluminum smelting capacity out of the market by the year-end, potentially adding fuel to a months-long price rally. As per China’s Trade Balance, exports for Aluminum including unwrought declined in Sept on MoM basis but still remained higher by 4.3% on YTD basis.Copper prices on Tuesday drifted lower and went down at LME by 1.26% and went lower at MCX Future markets around 1% on Tuesday. Stocks at LME increased by 2.21% and cancelled warrants jumped massively by 6.04%. Copper prices climbed on supported
by demand growth expectations and relief from a stronger dollar, while markets looked ahead to policy announcements from China's Communist Party conference. Rio Tinto cut its mined copper production guidance for 2017 to 460,000-480,000 tonnes from 500,000-550,000 tonnes owing to a delayed ramp-up at its Chilean Escondida mine.
At LME, Nickel Stocks decreased by 0.03% on Tuesdays and cancelled warrants increased by 2.38%. As per INSG, The global market for nickel swung into a wider deficit of 6,700 tonnes in August from the month before. As per Chinese trade balance, exports of steel products declined on monthly basis in September whereas imports surged on monthly basis as well as y/y.
As per LME data, Lead stocks at LME increased by 0.12% on Tuesday & cancelled warrants declined by 0.24%. Investors had surged into metals on prospects of resilient China demand and environmental curbs that have cut into supply. As per ILZSG report released on Tuesday, global lead market narrowed its output deficit to 4,600 tonnes in August from 31,900 tonnes in July
In Zinc, premium for cash zinc has slumped in recent days, suggesting that the metal may be delivered against short positions as the main October contract expires this week. LME zinc stocks have already climbed about 20,000 tonnes since Oct. 5 to the highest since mid July. China's September zinc and zinc alloy output rose by 25,000 tonnes month-on-month to 398,000 tonnes, said Antaike, the research arm of the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association. As per ILZSG report released on Tuesday, global zinc market deficit widened to 39,600 tonnes in August from a revised deficit of 23,200 tonnes in July. We suggest range bound trade in Zinc today.
WTI oil prices traded flat at $51.5 per barrel last week as strength in the DX exerted pressure after the Senate Republicans passed budget. However, sharp downside was restricted as supply concerns citing tensions in Iraq and falling US rig count. Iraqi forces entered the oilrich city of Kirkuk, seizing territory from Kurdish fighters and briefly cutting some crude output from OPEC's second-largest producer. Iraqi Kurdistan briefly shut down some 350,000 barrels per day (bpd) of production from the major Bai Hassan and Avana oilfields due to security concerns. The government said its troops had taken control of Iraq's North Oil Co, and the fields quickly resumed production.
The KRG government said oil continued to flow through the export pipeline, and it would take no steps to stop it. Some 600,000 bpd of oil is produced in the region, and Turkey has threatened to shut a KRG-operated pipeline at Baghdad's request. Baker Hughes energy services firm said on Friday that amount of U.S. oil rigs drilling for new production fell by seven to 736 in the week to Oct. 20, the lowest level since June. On the MCX, oil prices gained 1.9 percent last week to close at Rs.3372 per barrel.As per API data released last night which showed crude supplies dropped by 7.1 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 13. The API data, however, also showed that gasoline stockpiles rose by 1.9 million barrels, while inventories of distillates climbed by 1.6 million barrels. OPEC’s compliance with production cut in September stood at 86% as per IEA chief. In US & Iran’s tussle, U.S. President Donald Trump's revised hardline policy towards Iran will have little impact on Tehran's ambition to develop its vital oil industry and attract foreign investment, a senior Iranian official said on Tuesday. Iraqi forces completed an operation to take control of all oil fields operated by state-owned North Oil Company in the Kirkuk region on Tuesday, a senior military officer said. During the previous round of sanctions against Iran, some 1 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil supplies were cut off global markets. While analysts said they did not expect renewed sanctions to have such a big impact again, especially as the United States would likely act alone, they did warn that such a move would be disruptive.NG prices traded higher around 0.54% in International markets and jumped around 1.1% in MCX futures market. Looking ahead to next Thursday’s U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) weekly storage report, utilities likely added 69 billion cubic feet of gas into storage in the week to October 13. NG prices showed positive movement wherein the prices at International market surged in the anticipation of heating demand from the country. But the prices mostly had limited gains and are expected to move sideways as the 8-14 days weather forecast shows normal temperature levels in most of the central regions. The prices may take cues from immediate demand if that exists from power generation sector. Looking over the weather forecast, we can see on right hand side, 6- 10 days forecast warmer weather in central and eastern region exists and is showing blue zone developing in western region signifying temperature below normal levels.
Although temperature levels in central & eastern counties are expected to be warmer and above than the average temperature levels around 60%-80% whereas 50%-70% lower temperature zones are developing in western zones. The 8- 14 days weather outlook shows mostly the warmer temperature levels across eastern region whereas in western coastal counties are expected to have ease in warmer temperature as temperature levels lowered around 33% to be normal.
MCX TECHNICAL VIEW
Last week, gold December contract prices once again turned lower after testing highs of 29955 and ended almost near the week’s low of 29554. Going forward, the immediate support of the trend channel is at 29320 and as long as it holds above that upside potential remains intact and we could see prices re-bounding from the supports towards the resistance of 29800 then 30250 levels. The momentum indicator RSI and stochastic are tending towards negative cross over, while the MACD is still on the positive note. For the week, we expect Gold prices to test the support of 29320 and advise buying around those levels for targets of 29800 for the week with strict stop loss of 29120.
For the fifth straight week, copper prices traded on a higher note and surged till the three years high of 466 but finally settled at 455.50. On the weekly chart, copper prices are moving along with the rising trend channel and according to that the immediate resistance is at 474 whereas supports are at 451 then 440 levels. Going forward, we expect copper prices to retreat lower till the support of 451 then 442 levels and will rebound from the same. The momentum indicator RSI has moved into the overbought zone while the MACD and stochastic are still on the positive note signifying minor dips in the short term. For the week, we advise buying on dips around 444 for upside targets of 462 then 470 levels with stop loss at 438.
✍ CRUDE OIL
For the second week, crude oil prices extended its gains after opening at 3325 and rose till the high of 3406, finally settled at 3372. On the weekly chart crude oil prices are moving along with the ascending trend channel and of the same the immediate support is at 3270 level. The immediate resistance of the slanting trend line is at 3440, surpass above that will confirm a bullish breakout and propel the prices towards the upside targets of 3600 and higher. The momentum indicator RSI has inched slightly higher followed with MACD, while the stochastic continued to remain on a negative note. For the week, we expect crude oil prices will continue to move higher till the above-mentioned resistance of 3440 then 3500 levels for the week.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW
✍ SPICE COMPLEX
NCDEX Jeera closed little higher for the last week due to fresh buying by the market participants at lower prices. Currently there is subdued demand from the physical players due to weak exports which is keeping prices steady. As per government data, Jeera exports during first four month of FY 2017/18 (Apr-Jul) is 49,205 tonnes, down 11% compared to last year exports volume for the same period. India's jeera exports in Jul down 12% on year to 7,498 tn. The arrivals have been higher during first 15 days of October at 2,676 tonnes compared to 930 tonnes last year same period according to Agmarknet data. Turmeric futures for Nov delivery closed higher for the second consecutive week due to diminishing arrivals and good demand for the turmeric. Now, the trend looks positive due to wet conditions in the southern peninsula which may affect the production. The export of turmeric is down by 16.4% to 41,517 tonnes for the first 4 month of FY 2017/18 compared to last years’ exports. For 2017/18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, this season down 1.5% to 44,956 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 45,633 hectares. Market participants are expecting good production in the coming season due to rains in turmeric sowing areas.
Dhaniya futures extended upside on lower levels buying. Cardamom futures traded sideways on lack of buying support. Jeera and Turmeric futures witnessed recovery on lower levels buying tracking strong fundamentals. Strong support for Turmeric NCDEX (Nov) seen at Rs.7380/qtl level. Prices of Jeera are likely to get support at lower levels due to low availability of stock in physical market and quality concerns. Upside in Dhaniya futures can be use to initiate fresh shorts as fundamentals of the commodity are bearish. Trading range for Dhaniya NCDEX (Nov) seen between Rs.4600-5200/qtl levels. India exported 3,06,990 tonnes of Spices worth Rs 4,589.14 crore during the first quarter of the 2017-18 financial year, up 35% as compared to 2,27,938 tonnes in the corresponding period last year, the Spices Board of India said. Below normal monsoon rainfall in major growing regions, lower carryover stocks and better export demand likely to support Cardamom prices in near term.
✍ OILSEED COMPLEX
NCDEX Soybean Nov futures closed lower last week due to profit booking by the market participants as new season arrivals and stock from last year weigh of prices. Weakness in spot prices weighs on futures too. Market participants are expecting lower arrivals in the physical market because of festival season in coming weeks but higher stocks with the oil mills pressurizing prices. In a press release SOPA, has estimated 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) soybean output at 9.15 mt, down from 11.49 mt a year ago. Moreover, on reports of lower meal exports in September is also worrying farmers. India's soymeal exports during September were at 9,650 tn, down 21% from a year ago. U.S. soybean futures fell on Friday on pressure from the ongoing U.S. harvest following a week of favorable weather for fieldwork in the core Midwest crop belt. Confirmation of fresh export business failed to buoy soybean futures. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said private exporters sold 198,000 tonnes of U.S. soybeans to China for delivery in the 2017/18 marketing year, the second soybean sale to China in as many days. The weekly COT report had spec traders adding another 37,186 contracts to their net long position in soybean futures and options.
Soybean at NCDEX (Nov) witnessed some recovery due to short covering. Higher arrivals and carryover stocks are pressurizing the prices at current levels. Downside in Soybean likely to remain limited on support of weaker Rupee, short covering and Festive demand. The U.S Department of Agriculture (USDA) has lowered its outlook for global oilseed production for 2017/18 to 577.0 million tons, down 1.6 million from earlier month projection. India trims tariff value of Crude Palm Oil to $719/tons vs $743/tons. RMSEED at NCDEX (Nov) is likely to test next resistance of Rs.3950/qtl. Overall outlook of the Oil and Oil Seeds complex looks bullish on festive demand. NCDEX (Nov) Castor traded down due to selling pressure. Over all sentiments still looks bearish until it’s sustain above Rs.4720/qtl level. MCX (Oct) Mentha Oil extended gains tracking strong fundamentals; fall in prices likely to cushion by robust export demand.
USDA rated soybean crop’s condition at 61% good/excellent till 15th Oct whereas Soybean harvest progress fell further behind normal. USDA estimated that 49% of the crop was harvested as of 15th Oct, against the five-year average of 60% showed by USDA weekly crop progress report released on Monday. As per Ministry of Agriculture, soybean production in India for 2017- 18 seasons is estimated to be around 12.22 million MT down by 11% Y/Y
Refined Soy Oil Nov futures closed higher last week tracking international soy oil prices. CBOT Soyoil rose last week as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency may keep volume mandates for renewable fuel - including soy-based biodiesel - for next year at or above proposed levels, reversing a previous. According to data release by SEA, crude soy oil imports down about 24% on year in September compared to last year. Moreover, in the Oil year 2016/17 (Nov-Sep) the imports have drop by 22% to 31 lakh tonnes compared to 39.6 lt last year. The government today cut the base import price of soyoil by $27 to $824 per tonnes. The government revises the base import prices every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate.
MCX CPO closed higher last week; its second consecutive weekly gain supported by weak rupees which makes the import expensive. However, reduction on tariff values by government capped further rise. For the second half, the government reduced the base import price of all palm oils, with the steepest cut of $31 per tn for refined, bleached and deodorised palmolein, and crude palmolein. As of Oct 1, India had 979,000 tn of edible oil in stock at ports, with an additional 16.1 lakh tonnes in the pipeline. According to SEA release, during Nov-Sep period, crude palm oil import is 57.34 lakh tonnes, up 9.5% from 52.34 lt during the same period of the previous oil year. Malaysian palm oil futures edged higher on Friday after two straight sessions of declines, tracking overnight gains in overseas markets and on cargo surveyor data showing strong exports. Exports of palm oil products during Oct. 1-20 rose 11.6% to 951,339 tonnes from 852,206 tonnes shipped a month earlier, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Friday. However, production in October is seen rising on-month due to the higher number of working days. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at end-September climbed 4% to 2.02 million tonnes from the previous month, while production in September fell 1.7% from August to 1.78 million tonnes, according to MPOB Mustard Nov futures jumped 2.47% during the last week, its first weekly gain in last 7 weeks supported of higher meal exports during the first 6 months of new financial year and increasing demand for winter crushing. As per SEA data, during Nov-Sep, import of mustard oil sharply down to 2.55 lakh tonnes from 3.33 lakh tonnes a year ago. There are improved mustard meal exports in first 6 month of FY 2017/18. Country exported 242,661 tonnes mustard meal during this period which is 76.4% higher on year. As per data compiled by Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills across the country crushed 425,000 tn of mustard seed in September, down around 6% from previous month.
✍ OTHER COMPLEX
Chana futures closed last week with gains after 4 weeks of continuous loss on bargain buying and anticipation that government may increase MSP for the next season. However, sufficient stocks levels in the country capped the price rise. According to the market participants, chana sowing acreage in the coming rabi season may be higher than last year as prices was firm throughout the year. According to the target estimate released by government, India’s chana production target estimate for 2017-18 is 97.5 mt which is slightly higher than 2016-17 fourth advance estimates of 93.3 lakh tonnes. NCDEX Chana November futures ended the day at Rs 5334per quintal which is1.85%positive in comparison to previous day. On Monday, Union Agriculture Minister said that the estimated decline in pulses production by about 7 lakh tonnes during Kharif season could get compensated in the coming Rabi (winter sown) season .Yesterday Haryana police said that it has registered a case against a firm allegedly supplying low quality pulses to the ration depots in Ambala district, much lower than the prescribed standards. The department had allocated 3,536 quintals of pulses in Ambala district for February and March. These were supplied by Delhi’s MRB Enterprises at focal points in Ambala.NCDEX (Dec) Cocudakl traded volatile due to short covering and lower levels buying. Kapas and Cotton prices at futures also traded sideways tracking weak fundamentals. Prices of Cotton seed oilcake may resume its northward movement due to tight stocks and delay in the new crushing season in central India due to bad weather. Chana futures traded down on selling pressure. Chana prices likely to face selling pressure at higher levels due to sufficient availability of stocks in spot markets. Guar futures faced resistance due to profit booking at higher levels. Strong support for Guar NCDEX (Nov) is seen at Rs.3580/qtl levels. Overall sentiments likely to remain firm on improved export demand and Weak Rupee against US Dollar. Buy on dips is advised to the traders. India's Wheat planting this year is expected to surpass last year's 31 million hectares on the back of better water availability and soil moisture.MCX Cotton Oct futures closed lower last week after three consecutive weekly rise, on anticipation that the arrivals may increase in coming weeks. Recent rains in the cotton growing states pressurize prices as it may improve production in the country. The prices have picked up earlier as arrival of new crop slowing down after the October rains, prices had increased marginally. However, prices have now stabilised as the cotton now available has higher moisture content. The Cotton Corporation of India is set to open its procurement centres in major cotton-growing states as it is believed that the prices may decrease below the MSP during the peak arrival season According to the first advance estimates for 2017-18 released by the government,
India's 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) cotton output is pegged at 322.7 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), down 2.5% from 330.9 lakh bales in 2016-17. ICE cotton fell to a two-month low on Friday, weighed by fund selling, harvest friendly weather and a stronger dollar. For the week, the contract slipped about 2.5 percent to register its biggest percentage fall since the week of Sept. 15. The COT report showed the managed money spec funds again trimming the net long position in cotton futures/options. MCX traded cotton futures traded mixed to higher tracking firmness in global prices. Moreover, thin supply at physical market also helped prices to bounce back from the previous session lows. Earlier, USDA kept its cotton production forecast for India unchanged from last month standing near 30.0 Million bales of 480 lb each, higher by 11% against the last year. USDA raised forecast for export from 4.2 million bales to 4.6 million bales, reducing inventory estimates marginally down and pegged at 14.62 million bales. Oct delivery cotton contract traded at MCX moved up by 0.43% and settled the day at Rs.18760/bales wherein NCDEX kapas futures gained 0.35% to close the day at Rs.863/20kg. Government has fix minimum support prices for long staple cotton at Rs.4320 per quintal and set Rs.4020 per quintal for medium staple cotton in year 2017-18 Guar complex futures resumed its bearish trend yesterday as prices tracked weaker trend at physical market supported by sluggish domestic buying against the adequate stocks at key trading centers. Most active Nov delivery guar seed futures traded at NCDEX dropped 1.06% and closed the day at Rs.3792/quintal. Similarly, Guar gum futures fell by 0.6% and settled the day at Rs.8260/quintal. Total stock positions of guar seed at NCDEX warehouse reported at 20926 MT as on 9th Oct and recorded 22742 MT for guar gum
Overall production and yield for year 2017-18 is likely to be lower due to uneven distribution in western Rajasthan which may restrict the major losses in prices. In the meanwhile, Rajasthan government has released its first advanced estimates showed total guar production for year 2017-18 at 16.76 lakh tonnes higher by 19% compare to last year. Gujarat has witnessed lower sowing as about 1.98 lakh hac was sown till 18th Sept against the 2.21 lakh hac sown for the last year. As per data compiled by Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, India's guar gum exports for first four months of FY 2017-18 has reached up to 178,119 tonnes from 105214 tonnes recorded a year ago, due to higher demand from the US. Total Guar gum export from India has surged by 69% y/y till July in year 2017-18.Chana futures closed higher for the second consecutive day on Friday after touching lowest levels
in two months during lasty week on bargain buying and expectation that the MSP may be increased for the new Rabi season. However, the chana prices fall from Rs. 6,400 per quintal levels during August last week to Rs. 5,200 levels currently due to reports of higher stocks with the stockists and traders on higher production and imports during last year. Chana production last year was increase by 32% to 93.3 lakh tonnes (lt) compared to 70.6 lt in the previous year. Moreover, the imports of chana during first four month of FY 2017/18 jumped by 655% to 2.44 la.
NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW
In the last week, Guarseed prices opened at 3770 and from there it slipped lower till the low of 3707 and finally ended at 3788. On the technical front, guar gum price has breached the ascending triangle pattern neckline but it failed close above that. Going ahead, if it manages to sustain above neckline resistance of 3819 then the commodity will once again turn into the bullish note. The momentum indicator RSI remained sideways while MACD and stochastic are on the positive note indicating bullish signs.As mentioned above, if the prices manage to sustain above 3819 then a sharp bounce can be seen till 4000 levels.
In the last week, the RM seed prices remained side way for most the week and in the last session of the week it surged sharply and ended at 8903. On the contract chart prices has come out of the consolidation phase by breaching the inverted Head & shoulder pattern. According to the pattern the upside targets are project till 3950 then 4030 levels whereas immediate supports are seen at 3850 then 3800 levels. Momentum indicators stochastic and MACD have made a positive cross over while RSI remained on a flat note. For the week, we expect RM seed price to remain positive and recommend buying on dips around 3860 for upside targets of 3900 then 3940 levels.
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